EXPECTATIONS: The State Budget on paper

The State Budget is generally based on macroeconomic assumptions such as the average price per barrel of oil (US$60 to US$62), the exchange rate (18.5 per cent) and GDP growth (1.82 per cent). In recent years, these assumptions have sought to convey an image of fiscal prudence. Angola’s General State Budget (OGE) for 2026 represents a nominal and prudent reduction compared with the 2025 OGE, with revenue and expenditure set at around 33 trillion kwanzas, a fall of approximately 4.1 per cent to 4.7 per cent, reflecting the decline in oil revenues (both price and production) and an emphasis on fiscal discipline, economic diversification and reforms, whilst maintaining a focus on social spending, despite the concentration on financial costs. And for 2026, a budget is forecast – for the first time – that will not rely excessively on oil revenues but rather on the non-oil sector, which is good for our economy.

On the expenditure side, the budget documents reinforce recurring priorities in the social sector, such as education, health, infrastructure and debt servicing. The expectation created is that of a budget geared towards macroeconomic consolidation and economic recovery. However, this expectation is rarely fully realised in practice.

REALITY

Budget implementation, according to the Ministry of Finance and budget implementation reports, shows that actual revenue collection tends to diverge from forecasts, particularly